[BOOKS] The Improbability Principle É David J. Hand – doctorio.us
Ost basic of them relegated To The Appendices But I the appendices but I could
Have Been ThereOne Of been thereOne of largest failings of the book however is the fact that it strays away from the subject matter uite often focusing less on the central argument and on why Hand refuses to believe in miracles xtra sensory perception and Creationism The rant on Creationism was a particular low point in my mind given as a very weak argument that should have been Melody on Loan expanded upon or omittedntirely Things improve when he steers the discussion back to the subject but ven then much of it felt padded and verboseAnd there I believe is the main source of my dissatisfaction Many of Hand s theories come across very concisely but HE GOES ON AND ON GIVING goes on and on giving and further talking without adding much to the discussion I will say that many of the improbable statistics and anecdotes presented are njoyable to the xtent that I freuently had to pause my reading in order to repeat the anecdotes to my wife but there seem to be far than necessary to make a point Parts of The Improbability Principle were highly interesting but padding removed the book would be half its current length in all probability The Improbability Principle tells about an important concept albeit in a not so xciting way as it promisesBasically the principle stands at that anything that is not going to happen so in a never Empire of the Saviours (Chronicles of a Cosmic Warlord, ever way can and will happen one day and that such instances of such improbable happening are in abundance around usWell sometimes I thought that is common sense and if you look closely at the other laws of the book the situations become and an obvious thingFor in shortthe book says that something IS going to happen withnough trials something of low probability WILL also happen and that as we look back we see the series of such Ex On The Beach events together that makes the probability of them happening a much dullervent and that with small changes big reverberations will occur and that anything near Good Thinking enough IS goodnoughThe intro does not deserve the book as it fails thoroughly to Death in Mumbai excite the readerThe laws run long into unnecessaryxamplesThe book is filled with gibberish and fillers all overAnd the last chapter so name How to use the Improbability Principle fails on the most reuired promise4 stars because the concept is important and no matter how bad the book is Baccarat : La lgende du cristal executed the concept comes across and I ll remember it forever Which as it sounds is not so improbable Statistics Pretty basic with a nice coherent framework to make it understandable and useful Examples fromveryday life depended a bit heavily on throwing dice I would have liked to see some poker or other games analyzed and used as O Colégio de Todos os Segredos examples I deal withxamples of poor statistical thinking March Violets (Bernie Gunther, every day in my medical office It is my job to help people understand the true risk of treatment versus symptom or disease often it is not very clear and information from well meaning relatives and friends and the Internet is often misleading I also get to see the results of unnecessary testing and procedures a patient with deformed breasts from multiple unnecessary biopsies from mammograms that should never have been done and the man who almost died from his prostate biopsy Another old man who died after a lung biopsy for a tumor that would never have hurt him before he died of other causes Statistics have an importance in real life but we all know that numbers can be distorted and made to be misleading The difference between a 1% chance of dying from a procedure and 15% chance is a 333 percent improvement That sounds like a lot but spread it over 10 years and it doesn t mean much yet medical decisions are madevery day on just such analyses Having a real feel for the meaning of numbers needs to be combined with the statistical analysis That s what you need a primary care physician for and this primary care physician is better off for having read this book One confession before I start the review I used to hate statistics as a subject in school and college with a madness that only I was aware of Simply put it was beyond me That s it When I saw this book in the list by Random house I Google d the book as always and was amazed at what was there in the bookThe probability factor has always fascinated me with it s could bes and would bes here the author has taken it to an altogether new depths completely The beauty of such books is that though the author is a renowned in that field the book is written for a novice Someone who has interest in that topic and wants to know about the topic in detail would love reading this book The author has done an amazing work in bringing together some of the most profound theories in the simplest manner in this book making it a thoroughly Zoete tranen enjoyable readStrongly recommended for people whonjoy reading topic based books coming from such renowned maestros. E and the same person twice Along the way he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly ffective An irresistible adventure into the laws behind “chance” moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck whether it’s in the world of business and finance or you’re merely sitting in your backyard tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
David J. Hand º 9 Free readI am surprised this book has a
Fairly Low Rating Knowlow rating I know it is about statistics but there is not an uation to be found in book and it is written in a fairly conversational and breezy style and has some interesting stuff on statistics I njoyed reading it and it made me look at statistics in a slightly different way than I usually do I thought it covered a lot of statistical fallacies and mistakes fairly well I think a person coming away from this book will be a little better able to handle odds and statistics in real life situations I t I heard an interview on NPR with David Hand in which he shared a seemingly impossible coincidence involving Anthony Hopkins I retold the story to my wife who purchased the book for me that same night I Have Not Been Able not been able shut up about the book ver since Hand does an incredible job of combining probability theory psychology math history and truly incredible stories to teach the reader why we should actually Student Research Projects in Calculus expect seemingly unlikelyvents Ie winning the lottery twice in one day to occur For someone like myself who cringes at the words statistics or math I was amazed at how simple and clear Hand was in leading a reader like myself through mathematical and statistical xplanations If only he had been my graduate school stats professor In addition to the amazing stories that Hand has included and his clarity in breaking down the probability principles that xplain them Hand is a surprisingly funny writer I caught myself laughing out loud many times while reading the book much to the irritation of the people seated near me Statistician able to clearly teach sophisticated concepts interesting funny Prior to completing Hand s book I would have guessed that was an impossible combinationNot Love for Imperfect Things everyone is able to pick up stats or math theories soasily Here Hand provides a book accessible to a wide audience that debunks magic luck psychic abilities divine intervention or any other number of concepts that signify our inherently poor ability to apply science and reason to A Heart of Stone everydayvents People in 2014 walk around drunk on the power of hindsight bias assuming they are far intellectually advanced than their ancestors But the belief in supernatural causes for Taking Instruction (Taboo, events that can bexplained by science is just as rampant as Language and Linguistics ever To some in the stats or math fields this book may seem underwhelming just as I am not knocked off my seat by psychology books written for the general public And yet a well researched well written intro level book that debunks common myths using psychology is something I would be the first to applaud It doesn t appear that Hand s book was intended to be marketed to statisticians though being human one can presume these individuals are as susceptible to being tricked by some strands of the Improbability Principle as the rest of us Therefore reviewers who give the book a low rating based simply on the fact that they were already familiar with the theories prior to reading it might want to reconsider whether the book itself is not good or whether they simply made a poor selection in choosing to read it It was fun to reflect on this book during the recent furor over the largest Powerball jackpot to date And I wasspecially interested in the meme that circulated for a while claiming that the 15 billion could make Divertimento every American a millionaire For a brief moment uestions of probability distributions and statisticsntered the American consciousness And then with a winner announced Love Is a Fairy Tale everyone went back to their regularly scheduled programming and statistical illiteracy remainedNumbers are hard they are another language It is no one s first language And so this book is an attempt to translate statistics into English and into theveryday context It is sorely needed since the modern world is built on numbers Whether we want to or not we confront statistics and probability Promise at Dawn every day yet ourvolutionary tendency biases our perceptions of things like large numbers and the actual probability of vents I really liked Hand s book because he is teaching statistics without teaching statistics Instead he is teaching numbers how to interact with them what to do when we see them and how to rework our native thinking about the world we live inRead at This is the best book on statistics I ve ver read and I ve taken several courses on statistics You can apply the principles to playing the lottery and games of chance I m a backgammon player It will also change your thinking about coincidences and improbable Bangkok Wakes to Rain events Withnough tries anything that is possible is likely to happen People have won the lottery twice And when you investigate deeper some The Right Sort of Man (Sparks Bainbridge Mystery events might not have been so improbable in the first place Like the time my wife and I met our next door neighbors at London s Heathrow Airport Or the time I met No testimony is sufficient to. In The Improbability Principle the renowned statistician David J Hand argues thatxtraordinarily rare Darkmere events are anything but In fact they’re commonplace Not only that we should allxpect to Et si la maladie n'tait pas un hasard ? experience a miracle roughly oncevery month But Hand is no believer in superstitions prophecies or the paranormal His definition of “miracle” is thoroughly rational No mystical or supernatural Den of Shadows (Gamblers Den explanation is necessary to understand why someone is luckynough to win the lottery twice or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive All we need Hand argues is a Establish a miracle unless the testimony be
such a kind that s falsehood would be miraculous than the fact which it Scraps Of The Untainted Sky endeavors tostablish David HumeUnderstanding means removing obscurity obfuscation ambiguity and confusion David HandThe Improbability Principle is the counter punch to Carl Jung s synchronicity Jung the creator of archetypes used in psychotherapy practice sought to prove that unusual coincidences or synchronicity that he documented with his patients must be due to supernatural causes Unfortunately Jung was a psychoanalyst not a statistician David Hand on the other hand uses mathematics and statistics to demonstrate that coincidences need no xtraordinary cause but simplyOf Such A Kind That
A CLEAR EFFECT OF THEclear ffect of the law very large numbersBefore jumping into the history of probability which is where this work shines Hand demonstrates that there is a wide range of beliefs that run the gauntlet from the not so dangerousmorphia resonance gods miracles paranormal to the potentially dangerous horoscopes In Donald Reagan s book For the Record he states that Ronald Reagan s Huguenot Prophecy and Clandestine Worship in the Eighteenth Century every major decision was cleared with a woman in San Francisco using horoscopes Now its okay if you believe a horoscope which says you will have a wonderful day and meet someone very interesting BUT if you are moving armies around the world and launching missiles I would rather that you don t use a horoscopeScience is always the most interesting when we can see how ideas develop over time Improbability starts witharly randomizing devices like the astragalus and talus used in Egypt then moves on to arly works on probability and chance by Huygens 1657 and Cardano 1563 before tackling the greats Fermat Pascal and BernoulliOnce the foundation is laid Hand s chapter titles are the key to how this may play out without involving the supernaturalThe Law of Inevitability someone s got to win the lotteryThe Law of Truly Large Numbers and the law of combinations the birthday problemThe Human Mind our minds are programmed to find patterns and given nough dataThe Law of Selection publication bias and the Law of Near EnoughI love the Law of Near Enough because I met my wife in Costa Rica in 1987 She lived in uebec and I lived in Seattle However we discovered that two years Aeralis (The Frost Chronicles, earlier I was in Cozumel for two weeks at the same time she was in Playa del Carmen only 47 km away The people I was diving with spent their second week in Playa while Ilected to stay behind Hmmmm it s Near Enough that I ve thought of this many times over the past 25 years Of course it could have been 100km or offset by Alternatives Chapter 2 (The Chronos Files; The Shattered Saga exactly one month or one year or have occurred simultaneously at a completely different placeWhen one looks backwards itsasy to find a pattern Prediction of future Cincinnati and Other Plays events is another matter How miracles rarevents and coincidences happen Moreover Speak Out! everyday Begin this book by asking uestions and by thend you may probably reach an answer It s not however an answer to what causes those rare I Like You the Best events but how thosevents are not actually improbable It provides a new perspective and a different direction to look at things and their probabilities how statistics and numbers can alter situations and view points David Hand tries to The collectors encyclopedia of antique marbles explain Improbability through the various strands of his principle the law of inevitability law of selection law of truly large numberstc He The Philosophy of Giambattista Vico explains this throughxamples real life and fictional and gives the book a lively sense Hand also tries to put up humor to Lone Star Standoff ease the way of the reader throughout the book Declining the prophecies or stereotypes or superpower God as the cause behind thextremely improbable vent Hand tries to interpret them through the Improbability Principle Move to Appendices after reading Chapter 2 for better understanding Albeit the Improbability Principle is one of those books which leaves an impact on your mind and has the capacity to alter your perceptions the book often drifts away from its basic hypothesis Hand takes a long time to make his point The last chapter on the applications of the Improbability principle stands too dull compared to the other sections of the book Overall the book is very ntertaining After making my way through The Improbability Principle I came to a startling revelation I really have to stop running out and buying books with positive reviews in MacLean s I suppose this very concisely shows my opinion on the book but allow me to More Punishment For His Cheating Wife explain myself The Improbability Principle has a very interesting concept offering theories as to why the highly improbable seems to happen all the time I will grant that Hand sxplanations are very insightful but getting there proved to be highly tedious Having a rudimentary understanding of statistics and probability the most painful to read were the basic concepts needed for these Decision explanations I was glad to see the Irm grounding in a powerful set of laws the laws of inevitability of truly large numbers of selection of the probability lever and of nearnough Together these constitute Hand’s groundbreaking Improbability Principle And together they The View from Alameda Island explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day Hand wrestles with seemingly lessxplicable uestions as well what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common why financial crashes are par for the course and why lightning does strike the same plac.